Data Detective

DATA DETECTIVE

17 January 2012                                                                                Last Release 

                  Next Release

 

Tracking New Zealand Economic Statistics                                  Economic Measure

Period

Result

Interest Rate Impact Actual

Next Release Date

Forecast

Interest     Rate   Impact Forecast

High Importance - Quarterly

1

Real GDP, s.a.

Q3

0.8%qoq               (1.3% Ann. Avg)

Æ

22 Mar

0.6% [prelim]

Æ

2

CPI Inflation

Q3

0.4% (4.6% yoy)

È

19 Jan

0.3%

Æ

3

Unemployment Rate, s.a.

Q3

6.6%

È

2 Feb

6.5%

Æ

4

Employment Growth, s.a.

Q3

0.2%              (2.0% yoy)

È

2 Feb

0.3%

Æ

5

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index

Q4

101.3

Æ

Mid Mar

105

Æ

6

Labour Cost Index, Private Sector (qoq)

Q3

0.5%

Æ

7 Feb

0.4%

Æ

7

NZIER QSBO Business Confidence s.a.

Q4

-3%

Æ

Early Apr

8%

Æ

8

NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilisation

Q4

90.2%

Æ

Early Apr

90.5%

Æ

9

Retail Sales Volumes, s.a.

Q3

2.2% (+4.0%yoy)

Æ

15 Feb

+1.0%

Æ

10

RBNZ Official Cash Rate

8 Dec

2.5% (no change)

Æ

26 Jan

2.5%

Æ

 

High Importance - Monthly

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

Building Consents, ex apt. (3mth ave. yoy)

Nov

-0.1%

Æ

31 Jan

1.0%

Æ

12

Housing Credit Growth, RBNZ  (Annual)

Nov

1.1%

Æ

31 Jan

1.2%

Æ

13

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

Dec

108.4

È

19 Jan

105

Æ

14

REINZ Median House Prices (yoy)

Nov

2.1%

Æ

Mid Jan

3.7%

Æ

15

Electronic Card Transactions. Retail s.a.

Dec

-0.3% (6.3%yoy)

Æ

10 Feb

0.2%

Æ

16

Net Migration (Annual)

Nov

-570

Æ

3 Feb

-400

Æ

17

NBNZ Business Survey Firms own Activity

Dec

25.7

Æ

29 Feb

21.5

Æ

18

NBNZ Business Survey Inflation Expectation

Dec

2.99%

Æ

29 Feb

2.95%

Æ

19

NBNZ Business Survey Pricing Intentions

Dec

17.3

Æ

29 Feb

16.5

Æ

20

ANZ World Commodity Prices

Dec

-0.8%mom

Æ

2 Feb

+0.5%

Æ

21

Merchandise Trade Balance (Annual) bn

Nov

NZD0.55

Æ

27 Jan

NZD0.40

Æ

22

PMI Manufacturing Confidence Index, s.a.

Nov

45.7

Æ

26 Jan

47.5

Æ

23

Govt. Fiscal Balance** bn (4mth end -YTD)

Oct

-NZD3.4

Æ

31 Jan

-NZD4.5

Æ

 

Market Indicators

 

 

 

 

 

 

24

NZD TWI (Average)

Dec

68.7

Æ

Jan

69.8

Æ 

25

Oil Prices (Dubai 1 mth) – USD average

Dec

106.2

Æ

Jan

109.5

Æ

26

US 10 Year Govt. Bond Yields average

Dec

1.97%

È

Jan

1.95%

Æ 

 

 

Lower Importance

 

 

0Ç5È  22Æ

 

 

0Ç 0È  26Æ

1

Westpac Employment Confidence Index

Q4

99.6

Æ

Late Mar

104

Æ

2

PPI Input Inflation

Q3

0.6%qoq

Æ

20 Feb

0.5%

Æ

3

PPI Output Inflation

Q3

0.2%qoq

Æ

20 Feb

0.8%

Æ

4

Current Account Balance (Annual) bn

Q3

-NZD4.6

Æ

21 Mar

-NZD6.0

Æ

5

Export/Import Prices – Terms of trade

Q3

-0.6%

Æ

1 Mar

-1.5%

Æ

6

Merchandise Export Volumes, s.a. (qoq)

Q3

-0.7%

Æ

1 Mar

-0.5%

Æ

7

Merchandise Import Volumes, s.a. (qoq)

Q3

+2.7%

Æ

1 Mar

+1.0%

Æ

8

Manufacturing Sales Volumes, s.a.

Q3

-1.4%

Æ

8 Mar

-0.5%

Æ

9

Wholesale Trade Sales Values, s.a.

Q3

-2.2%qoq

Æ

7 Mar

+1.5%

Æ

10

NBNZ Business Confidence

Dec

16.9

Æ

29 Feb

14.5

Æ

 

*s.a. denotes seasonally adjusted

 

 

 

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