Data Detective

 DATA DETECTIVE        

16  August 2010                                                                                      Last Release 

Next Release

 

Tracking New Zealand Economic Statistics                                 

Economic Measure

Period

Result

Interest Rate Impact Actual

Next Release Date

Forecast

Interest     Rate   Impact

Forecast

High Importance - Quarterly

1

Real GDP, s.a.

Q1

0.6%                     (-0.4% Ann. Avg)

Æ

23 Sep

0.5%

È

2

CPI Inflation

Q2

0.3%            (1.8% YoY)

È

18 Oct

1.1% [prelim]

Æ

3

Unemployment Rate, s.a.

Q2

6.8%

È

4 Nov

TBA

Æ

4

Employment Growth, s.a.

Q2

-0.3%               (0.0% YoY)

Æ

4 Nov

TBA

Æ

5

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index

Q2

119.3

Æ

Late Sep

113.5

Æ

6

Labour Cost Index, Private Sector

Q2

0.4%

Æ

2 Nov

0.5%

Æ

7

NZIER QSBO Business Confidence

Q2

18%

Æ

Early Oct

13%

Æ

8

NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilisation

Q2

90.8%

Æ

Early Oct

91.3%

Ç

9

Monetary Policy Statement / OCR Review

Jul

3.00%

Æ

16 Sep

3.25%

Ç

 

Monthly

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

Retail Sales, s.a.

Jun

0.9%

(3.1% YoY)

Ç

14 Sep

TBA

Æ

11

Building Consents, ex apt. (Annual)

Jun

25.8%

Æ

31 Aug

30.7%

Æ

12

Housing Credit Growth, RBNZ  (Annual)

Jun

2.8%

Æ

30 Aug

2.8%

Æ

13

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

Jul

115.6

È

Late Aug

112.0

Æ

14

REINZ Median House Prices (Annual)

Jun

3.5%

Æ

Mid Aug

3.2%

Æ

15

Credit Card Billings, RBNZ (Annual) s.a.

Jun

4.5%

Æ

20 Aug

3.8%

Æ

16

Net Migration (Annual)

Jun

16,504

Æ

20 Aug

13,830

Æ

17

NBNZ Business Survey Firms own Activity

Jul

32.4

Æ

30 Aug

27.5

È

18

NBNZ Business Survey Inflation Expectation

Jul

3.17

Æ

30 Aug

3.35

Ç

19

NBNZ Business Survey Pricing Intentions

Jul

31.4

Æ

30 Aug

35.0

Æ

20

ANZ World Commodity Prices

Jul

-0.8%

Æ

Early Sep

-2.5%

Æ

21

PMI Manufacturing Confidence Index, s.a.

Jul

49.9

Æ

Mid Sep

TBA

Æ

22

Govt. Fiscal Balance** bn (11mth end -YTD)

May

-NZD4.7

Æ

Oct

-NZD5.3

Æ

 

Market Indicators

 

 

 

 

 

 

23

NZD TWI (Average)

Jul

67.28

Æ

Aug

67.40

Æ

24

Oil Prices (Dubai 1 mth) – USD average

Jul

73.10

Æ

Aug

73.00

Æ

25

US 10 Year Govt. Bond Yields average

Jul

2.99%

È

Aug

3.15%

Ç

 

 

Lower Importance –Quarterly

 

 

2Ç 4È  19Æ

 

 

4Ç 2È  19Æ

1

Westpac Employment Confidence Index

Q2

108.2

Æ

Early Oct

110.0

Æ

2

PPI Input Inflation

Q1

1.3%

Æ

19 Aug

1.8%

Æ

3

PPI Output Inflation

Q1

1.8%

Æ

19 Aug

1.5%

Æ

4

Current Account Balance (Annual) bn

Q1

-NZD3.1

Æ

Late Sep

-NZD3.5

Æ

5

Export/Import Prices – Terms of trade

Q1

+5.8%

Æ

10 Sep

+4.5%

Æ

6

Merchandise Export Volumes, s.a.

Q1

3.0%

Æ

10 Sep

2.0%

Æ

7

Merchandise Import Volumes, s.a.

Q1

2.8%

Æ

10 Sep

1.5%

Æ

8

Manufacturing Sales Volumes, s.a.

Q1

-2.7%

Æ

8 Sep

1.2%

Æ

9

Wholesale Trade Sales Values, s.a.

Q1

2.3%

Æ

7 Sep

1.0%

Æ

 

Monthly

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

NBNZ Business Confidence

Jul

27.9

Æ

Aug

25.0

Æ

11

Merchandise Trade Balance (Annual) bn

Jun

NZD0.64

Æ

30 Aug

NZD0.8

Ç

 

*s.a. denotes seasonally adjusted

 

 

 

0Ç  0È  11Æ

 

 

1Ç 0È  10Æ